SBY & the Future

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future (Niels Bohr).

What does a president do once he is no president any more?

Feeling relieved not to have to deal with the likes of  creepy fellow politicians? Perhaps  just being  a happy, lazybones  unemployed? Or do some gardening perhaps? Not to mention fishing.  Hanging out with old friends maybe? Playing with the grandchildren? Well, most likely most of them will have a new career – say a singer, a crooner Java-style.

Many options, but not for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. His dream is different. He  wants to be a  futurologist after 2014. Even better: he would like to start a club of futurologists.

I can understand. Wouldn’t you want to know  how it will be like in two or ten years from now?

The president will join a great tradition. It will make him a descendant of oracles and seers. I admit: at considerable distance and with a crucial difference. The Oracle of Delphi, Cassandra or Nostradamus had predictions which were inevitable or deterministic. Modern futurology is about the probability developments and events will occur – and the way they may be influenced.

It’s an interesting choice on SBY’s wish-list.

As a statesman he has a job in which planning for next week, next year, next century even, is a crucial part of  his political tool-kit. To succeed he has to understand what developments are likely to continue, what is likely to change and what will be the likely successful novelties. Great statesmen – I think of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his New Deal, Nelson Mandela and overcoming Apartheid or Soekarno and Pancasila-  use to have such a vision to build on and the skills to put them to practice while they were at the steering wheel.

Perhaps the President thinks he presently is not good enough as a futurologist-head of state yet. And that if he will dedicate himself to study this speciality after he has retired,  he may provide expert consult to  his  successor – say  Aburizal Bakrie or Prabowo Subianto- who also may be lacking this talent.

To be absolutely clear:  futurology is a domain that  fully deserves  Niels Bohr’s irony.